If Obama wins, my money is on Jeb Bush in 2016. This is the road to 2016 with Jeb, which is why he was giving prime time interviews during the Republican Convention, and it’s also why he’s been focusing on how conservatives have gone too far to the right. Come 2016, Americans will have Tea Party fatigue, and be in the market for a kindler, gentler-seeming conservative, and Jeb will be there, waiting, with his cute agenda. He has effectively contrasted himself with his brother, so his last name won’t matter as much.
Gov. Christie? Maybe. But he’ll have to lose weight. Americans are fat as all hell, but they don’t much care for seeing their gelatinous reflection on the global stage. Americans, wrongly, think of themselves as strong and fit. Think Dubya cutting down brush in Texas. Governor Christie is ginormous, and if he sheds a few pounds, I’ll view it as a sign that he’s ready to run, otherwise…. Jeb wants it, and he’ll be in the running come 2016. He’s positioning himself as the only calm and smart conservative in the room, and in doing so, making a calculation that republicans will be in the mood for something more substantive than the Tea Party rage come 2016.
Will Obama win in 2012? It’s hard to tell, but my gut tells me no. The same people who broke for Obama in 2008 will probably break for Romney this time around. They’ll live to regret it, but I doubt they’ll be able to resist the archetypal - glossy, rich, and white – American President. They never wanted Obama. It’s just that McCain/Palin scared the living crap out of them. Now they get to breath a sigh of relief and go back to their old ways.
I think that the 47% comment will be Romney's undoing. I wonder how the Obama apologists will excuse his ignoring black dire issues (and he will), as a lame-duck president.
Oh my, that's an awful yet revealing photo of Christie. He has to lose a lot of weight along with his bully attitude if he's thinking about 2016. Accomplishing the latter, I think, will be much harder. Without a doubt, Jeb will be the second happiest pol if Obama wins re-election. And Obama's new found Clinton love betrays a deeper concern--perhaps panic by now--about the continued lackluster enthusiasm among the party's core who have fond memories of the Clinton years. I'm not sure which corporatist will win in November, but I'm sure their cronies on Wall Street don't care.
That picture puts it all in perspective.
I believe the Romney Ryan ticket will not be able to attract enough conservatives to turn out to vote. After the debacle at the RNC, rule changes to prevent Delegates from nominating Ron Paul on the floor, even if he would not have had enough to steal the nomination from Romney, has sparked a civil war in the GOP and I think it will play out in lower turnout among Republican voters or they will vote for the Libertarian Gary Johnson. I think Hispanics will turn out in high numbers as well as those who support gay marriage and support Obama. I also think he will get the majority of females voters and the majority of the Black vote even it is a lower turnout among them.
You could be right, especially with the rifts between Romney and Ryan becoming more apparent.