If Obama wins, my money is on Jeb Bush in 2016. This is the road to 2016 with Jeb, which is why he was giving prime time interviews during the Republican Convention, and it’s also why he’s been focusing on how conservatives have gone too far to the right. Come 2016, Americans will have Tea Party fatigue, and be in the market for a kindler, gentler-seeming conservative, and Jeb will be there, waiting, with his cute agenda. He has effectively contrasted himself with his brother, so his last name won’t matter as much.
Gov. Christie? Maybe. But he’ll have to lose weight. Americans are fat as all hell, but they don’t much care for seeing their gelatinous reflection on the global stage. Americans, wrongly, think of themselves as strong and fit. Think Dubya cutting down brush in Texas. Governor Christie is ginormous, and if he sheds a few pounds, I’ll view it as a sign that he’s ready to run, otherwise…. Jeb wants it, and he’ll be in the running come 2016. He’s positioning himself as the only calm and smart conservative in the room, and in doing so, making a calculation that republicans will be in the mood for something more substantive than the Tea Party rage come 2016.
Will Obama win in 2012? It’s hard to tell, but my gut tells me no. The same people who broke for Obama in 2008 will probably break for Romney this time around. They’ll live to regret it, but I doubt they’ll be able to resist the archetypal - glossy, rich, and white – American President. They never wanted Obama. It’s just that McCain/Palin scared the living crap out of them. Now they get to breath a sigh of relief and go back to their old ways.